Foundations in Exponential Thinking (3): Cognitive Biases

Cognitive Bias

Think Exponentially: Cognitive Biases Activity Activity Question: What cognitive biases do you have about the future that might be an example of linear thinking? Take a minute or two and write these down. How might being aware of these help you in the future?

I imagine nearly all of my cognitive biases are a result of educated incapacity: knowing just enough to be dangerous. If only because I’ve been unaware of the difference until now.

I’m in agreement with the notion that things will happen pretty much as they have in the past, only faster. Doesn’t there need to be more to it? I have to admit, I really didn’t apply that to “predictions” in any real fashion. I really don’t know how. The module indicates it’s not a matter of how you think about the future, but rather: adjust your timing. That timing piece has been a challenge for me. I figure most anything I could imagine, especially once imagined could be accomplished much faster than previous timelines. I read somewhere that anything (?) can be accomplished in 9 years from the time it’s first “thought of and made public”. I don’t remember where I got that exactly; but somewhere.

This is interesting to think about the rate of change, the rate of progress, the rate of cycles, the rate of development. The rate of strategic action using the jump-the-“S”-curve practice. Each stage will happen much faster than the previous steps combined. hmmm. if the rate gets faster, by what factor will the final stage be faster than the previous? hmmm. if the rate of the first stage is 1/10 and stage 2 = 1/100, stage 3 is 1/10,000, stage 4 is 1/100,000,000. Does that follow the Law of Accelerating Returns? or have I morphed it into something else?

p.s. happy birthday birdman ❤

Other Sources
20 Cognitive Biases That Affect Your Decisions http://mentalfloss.com/article/68705/20-cognitive-biases-affect-your-decisions

58 cognitive biases that screw up everything we do  https://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-2015-10

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