Case Study Exponential Thinking

SFTF: Singularity 2: Practicing Exponential Foresight; getting started

I’m currently taking the 2nd Singularity University class. It builds on the first, which is great. I’m going to share some of what we’re doing with you all here. This should also help me remember what we did. The goal is to do some foresight on a Global Grand Challenge.

First: choose a Global Grand Challenge that you are interested in and (important) that you can influence. My initial GCC was ubiquitous, sustainable energy; but when adding the constraint of “that you can influence”, I had to change to Disaster Relief. (note: I need to do some additional research to really formulate a “what” under this Challenge to be more manageable)

A few principles are necessary to understand when doing foresight. First: we really can’t predict the future. Not in its entirety anyway. We can make some educated guesses, based on certain principles.

  1. We need to apply some anticipatory skills, combined with a smidge of imagination. Profit isn’t always the initial priority of a forecast.
  2. Just as Jules Verne famously said after his works intrigued readers: “I have invented nothing”, they were/are not substitutes for scientific narratives. Instead, he was sensing and relating a possible future for the technologies known at his time; based on the knowns he could identify. His imagination and skill in relating these new possible worlds were his superpower.

So our next task is to identify the knowns relevant to our GGC.

–> use MMX to try to ID some of these

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